Michael and I talked about the crazy housing market and more on this week’s Animal Spirits video: If rising mortgage rates don’t help I don’t know what will. Unfortunately, if a life event is making you buy a house right now it is not an ideal situation. Life events don’t care about prices or interest rates. Then I remembered - most people move not because they want to but because a life event forced their hand. They’ve been looking at the scalding hot housing market data for months now. When I read this my first thought was this: Why would a Fed official be trying to buy a house right now?! He obviously sees what’s going on with prices and interest rates both rising. Both house prices and rents are up significantly across the nation, while vacancy rates for rented and owner-occupied homes are down. Trust me, I know it is red hot because I am trying to buy a house here in Washington and the market is crazy. expansion since the COVID-19 recession has been the red-hot housing market. House-hunting right now has to be a supremely stressful process.įed Governor Christopher Waller even talked about his own experience of finding a house in a recent speech:Īs we all know, a singular feature of the U.S. Inequality in homeownership has likely never been greater. This feels like a once-in-a-lifetime shift in housing prices that is going to make those who own a home much wealthier and those who want to own a home in a much tougher spot. In San Diego, for example, the typical home gained about $160,000 in value last year, while the typical worker earned about $55,000, Zillow said.
Now look at an extreme market like San Diego: That’s the first time the gains in the median value of a home have exceeded the median income levels. full-time worker earned, which was about $50,000 last year before taxes, according to Census Bureau data cited by Zillow. That figure was slightly higher than what the median U.S. Zillow Group Inc.’s home value index, which estimates the value of the typical U.S. This is from a Zillow report (via the WSJ): Housing prices were so strong last year that many homeowners made more on their home than they did from their job. Generationally low mortgage rates (until recently).Īdd in the remote work trend and pandemic-induced exodus from some expensive areas of the country and you get one of the craziest housing markets ever.We didn’t build enough houses following the Great Financial Crisis.Millennials are in their prime household formation years.I’ve gone over the reasons for this in the past: 48% of all houses sold went for more than the listing price.Almost half of all homes had an offer accepted within a week. Nearly 60% of houses that went under contract had an offer accepted within the first two weeks after it was listed.That’s $530 more a month than pre-pandemic levels. With mortgage rates now above 4% and prices skyrocketing, the average monthly payment on the median home sale price is now $2,120.median home sale price surged 7% during the four-week period ending March 13. Here are some data points from the latest Redfin housing market update: The supply chain is all but broken and maybe the housing market is too.
Unfortunately, even if we wanted to build more houses right now, it’s basically impossible with all of the supply chain issues and worker shortages.
While demand is strong, supply is short and constrained, the ability to actually build and deliver homes has been slowed by the supply chain that is all but broken, by the workforce that is short in supply, and the intense competition for scarce and titled land assets. He said it’s taking 6-8 weeks longer to build a house right now for a variety of reasons:
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